9 Key Forecasts for the 2024 Rental Market Trends

Is navigating the complex landscape of the rental housing market leaving you feeling overwhelmed? You're not alone. The ever-evolving dynamics of demand and supply, shifts in renter preferences, and economic climate create a conundrum that leaves landlords and property managers searching for answers. To help make sense of it all, we've conducted in-depth analysis and forecasts to bring you this guide.

As we delve into these rental market predictions for 2024, leverage this information to prepare and navigate the changing landscape confidently and effectively.

Prediction 1: Slowing Rent Growth in Major Cities

The rollercoaster ride of the rental market in recent years is anticipated to take a significant turn in 2024, with a marked slowdown in rent growth in major cities. The once red-hot rental market has cooled down, with year-over-year rent growth nationally plummeting from a peak of 18 percent to a negative 1.1 percent. This indicates that the national median rent today is slightly lower than it was one year ago.

The Impact of Increased Apartment Availability on Rent Prices

A key factor contributing to this slowdown is the increased apartment availability, particularly in major cities. We’re witnessing a historic multifamily construction boom, with the number of new multifamily apartment units under construction hitting one million for the first time ever in 2023. This upsurge in supply has clashed with softening demand, leading to a cooling rental market.

The Return of Demand for Downtown and Midtown Apartments

However, as the demand for downtown and midtown apartments starts to rebound, we may see a shift in rental market trends. Renters are slowly returning to urban centers from the suburbs, sparking a renewed interest in downtown and midtown apartments. This could potentially offset the impact of increased apartment availability and stabilize rent prices.

As we navigate these rental market shifts, landlords and property managers must stay informed and adapt their strategies accordingly. Our property management software provides a comprehensive solution to streamline your operations and stay ahead of market trends. Our Rentability Report offers valuable insights to help you make informed decisions and maximize your rental income.

Prediction 2: The Rise of Accidental Landlords and the Impact on the Rental Market

"Accidental Landlords" are rental owners who acquired their rental properties due to circumstances and don’t consider themselves investors. For the first time since 2018, the number of accidental landlords is on the rise. 

This trend can be attributed to the current state of the housing market. With the market sluggish, many potential home sellers choose to rent out their properties rather than sell them in unfavorable conditions.

As a result, rental investors' reluctance to acquire new properties in a higher mortgage-rate environment is anticipated to continue. This trend could have significant implications for the rental market, including an increased supply of rental properties and potentially slower rent growth.

Prediction 3: The Shift in Homeownership and Its Effect on Rental Demand

In recent years, we've observed a significant shift in homeownership, leading to a rise in long-term renters. This trend is expected to continue into 2024 and beyond, affecting the rental market in various ways.

The Increase in Long-Term Renters Due to Systemic Barriers to Homeownership

Economic factors such as inflation, higher housing costs, and economic instability have led to stagnation in household formation. This, combined with the systemic barriers to homeownership, such as stricter lending standards and the increasing burden of student debt, has resulted in a rise in long-term renters.

Furthermore, the national median rent has increased 20 percent since the onset of the pandemic. This has led to many potential homeowners opting to rent instead, contributing to the growth of long-term renters.

As a result, landlords and property managers must adapt their strategies to cater to this demographic, who typically value stability, quality amenities, and excellent property management.

The Impact of Hybrid Work Arrangements on Rental Demand

The pandemic has also ushered in a new era of work, with many companies adopting hybrid or fully remote work arrangements. This shift has significantly impacted where renters choose to live, often opting for smaller and more affordable markets on the peripheries of major job centers.

Providence, RI, for example, logged the nation’s fastest rent growth in 2023, likely driven by a surge of interest from renters seeking a more affordable alternative to nearby Boston.

This trend is expected to continue in 2024, as the prevalence of hybrid work arrangements allows renters more flexibility in their living arrangements. As a result, property managers and landlords must be prepared to cater to this evolving demand.

Prediction 4: The Emergence of AI-Powered Tools in the Rental Market

As we progress further into the digital age, the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) in various sectors is inevitable, and the rental market is no exception. In fact, 2023 was a landmark year, with AI technologies like ChatGPT making significant strides. We predict that 2024 will witness an even bigger wave of AI-powered tools designed to make the rental process more efficient for property managers and renters.

The Impact of AI on Coordinating Rental Actions

AI technologies are not just limited to searching and comparing rentals. They can also aid in coordinating various actions related to the rental process. For instance, AI can help schedule property viewings, remind renters of upcoming rent payments, or even streamline the maintenance request process.

At TenantCloud, we recognize the power of AI and its potential to revolutionize the rental market. We're continually integrating advanced AI technologies into our platform, providing our customers with intelligent solutions that make managing rentals more efficient.

With AI, the next high-demand rental market cycle could look quite different. Renters will have more power in their hands, and property managers will be equipped with tools that can help them stay ahead of the curve. As we move into 2024, both renters and property managers can seize opportunities from this new technological frontier.

As the rental market continues to evolve, so do we. Our Rentability Report is continually updated to reflect the latest trends and predictions, including the impact of AI on the rental market. We are dedicated to providing our users with the tools and insights they need to navigate the changing landscape of the rental market successfully.

Prediction 5: The Expected Decline in Mortgage Rates and Home Prices

It's important to note that there is a general expectation of a decline in both mortgage rates and home prices. This shift is anticipated to bring some much-needed relief for lenders and aspiring homeowners alike.

The Potential Relief for Lenders and Aspiring Homeowners

Researchers project that mortgage rates will average around 6.8% in 2024, with the possibility of hitting 6.5% by the end of the year. This is a welcome relief, as the rates had previously crossed and stayed above the 7% mark. The decline in mortgage rates is projected to offer respite to lenders and prospective homeowners who have been grappling with high rates for some time. Danielle Hale, chief economist at a home-buying enterprise, stated that this forecast reveals the "green shoots we've been waiting to see in the housing market" and should give buyers some optimism after a grueling few years.

The Anticipated Impact on Housing Supply and Market Activity

In addition to declining mortgage rates, the housing market in 2024 is also expected to experience a dip in home prices. However, this does come with its own set of challenges. The decreased home prices are predicted to result in a further decline in housing supply, leading to overall market sluggishness. Despite this, home sales across the country are expected to hold steady compared to 2023 levels, edging up by 0.1% to approximately 4.07 million.

While these predictions provide some hope for aspiring homeowners, it's important to remember that not all regions will experience these changes equally. For instance, sales in the 100 largest markets are predicted to remain depressed, falling 2.2% year over year.

Prediction 6: The Increasing Demand for New Apartments with High-End Amenities

As renters' needs and expectations evolve, amenity offerings in rental properties are playing an increasingly influential role in attracting and retaining tenants.

The Influence of Amenities on Rental Prices

Amenities such as in-unit laundry, fitness centers, coworking spaces, and pet-friendly policies have become more than just 'nice-to-haves'; they are now expected standard features in many rental properties. These amenities add tangible value to a property, often leading to higher rental prices.

Our research at TenantCloud has shown that properties with high-end amenities can command higher rents, contributing positively to overall rental income. We've also noted that renters are willing to pay a premium for convenience and lifestyle-enhancing amenities. This trend is expected to continue in 2024, with the demand for luxury amenities further driving up rental prices.

Prediction 7: The Growing Importance of Efficient Property Management

As we navigate the evolving rental market landscape in 2024, efficient property management is becoming more important than ever. Technological advancements are playing a significant role in this shift, allowing property owners and managers to streamline their processes and offer seamless experiences to renters and rental owners alike.

The Role of Technology in Streamlining Rental Processes

The steady increase in comfort with technology among renters and rental owners over the past few years has led to an expectation for seamless rental processes. From making payments and submitting maintenance requests to signing leases and communicating with property managers, renters are increasingly seeking to complete these tasks online. 

This trend extends across generations, with even a significant majority of older renters showing an interest in online rental processes.

The Impact of All-in-One Platform on Property Management

We recognize the power of technology in transforming the rental market, and have designed our platform to meet these evolving needs. Our property management software helps landlords and property managers automate tasks, streamline operations, and offer seamless experiences to renters and rental owners.

Our platform offers a range of solutions, from income tracking and reporting, and tenant screening, to customizable reports and landlord forms. For instance, our software simplifies rent payment management, allows for efficient collection and monitoring of rent payments, and generates comprehensive income-tracking reports.

Moreover, we understand the importance of tenant screening in the current rental market climate. Our platform offers comprehensive tenant screening features, such as credit checks, criminal background checks, rental history verification, and income insights.

As we move into 2024, we at TenantCloud are committed to helping landlords and property managers navigate the changing rental market with our all-in-one platform. By leveraging technology, we strive to offer seamless experiences, streamline operations, and help you stay ahead in the rental market.

Prediction 8: The Anticipated Increase in Families and Older Renters in Rental Housing

As we look ahead to 2024, two key demographics are expected to significantly impact the rental market: families and older adults.

The Demand for Single-Family Rental Properties and Affordable, Accessible Rentals

The trend towards larger households is set to continue, driven in part by couples and families who are increasingly being priced out of the housing market. Consequently, the demand for single-family rentals is predicted to remain strong.

For older adults, the situation is somewhat different. The number of older adults in the US is growing, and by 2030, more than 1 in 5 Americans will be of retirement age. This demographic shift is reflected in the rental market, where the number of older adult renters grew by 32% between 2010 and 2020.

These older renters will need access to dwellings that are both affordable, due to living on a fixed income, and ADA-accessible, to meet their changing needs. However, our current stock of rental housing is not sufficient to meet this growing demand on the scale required.

The Influence of Policies Targeting the Affordable Housing Shortage

The shortage of affordable housing has reached crisis levels, and awareness of this issue is growing. As a result, a number of policies are being introduced that could increase the amount of housing being built across the US.

In 2023, more rezoning efforts were undertaken than in any previous year, with successes including doing away with single-family zoning, subsidizing office-to-residential conversions, allowing accessory dwelling units, and decreasing parking requirements. These initiatives are expected to continue in 2024, potentially easing the housing shortage and making renting more affordable.

Prediction 9: The Expected Impact of Extreme Weather on the Rental Market

As we head into 2024, a marked change in the climate is becoming the new normal. The frequency and cost of natural disasters have been on the rise, a trend that is expected to continue into 2024 and beyond. This shift in the climate will inevitably impact the rental market, creating new challenges for landlords and property managers.

The Need for Preparations in Disaster-Prone Areas

As the number of billion-dollar natural disasters rises, rental housing providers will need to brace themselves for the potential fallout. From wildfires and rising temperatures to hurricanes and flooding, extreme weather conditions are becoming increasingly common, particularly in areas prone to such events.

This makes it crucial for landlords and property managers to have plans in place to protect their properties. The type of preparations required will depend on the most likely climate events to impact their area. For example, properties in coastal regions might need to be fortified against hurricanes, while those in wildfire-prone areas might require fire-resistant landscaping.

The Influence on Insurance Rates

The escalating occurrence and cost of natural disasters are not just physical threats to properties but also financial ones. Over the past five years, insurance premiums and deductibles have increased by two to three times.

As we move towards 2024, it is expected that insurance costs will continue to increase. This could potentially result in higher costs for landlords and property managers, which may impact the profitability of rental properties in disaster-prone areas.

Conclusion: Preparing for the Future of the Rental Market

As we've explored throughout this article, the rental market in 2024 is poised for some significant changes. From shifts in homeownership trends to the rise of AI-powered tools, there's a lot to look forward to and prepare for. But as you face these forthcoming shifts, remember that you're not alone. TenantCloud is here to provide you with the tools, resources, and support you need to navigate the evolving landscape successfully.

By keeping your finger on the pulse of the market, you can stay ahead of the curve and adapt your strategies accordingly. Whether that means investing in new technologies to streamline your operations or adjusting your marketing strategies to attract a changing tenant demographic, staying informed allows you to make the most of the opportunities that come your way.

We're committed to helping landlords and property managers navigate these changes. Our platform offers a range of tools to help streamline your operations, from automated rental invoicing and collections to efficient tenant screening. With our property management software, you can ensure that you're well-equipped to manage your properties in the ever-evolving rental market of 2024.

While change may be inevitable, growth is optional. Choose to grow with TenantCloud, and let's take on the exciting opportunities of 2024 together.

For more insights and tips on rental market trends, check out the TenantCloud blog.